extremely explanatory world model, significantly updated mine
Debt cycles often cause wars
Because the deleverageing is a period of extreme financial stress, and that often comes out as revolution
E.g. massive debt in Europe before WW2 and all the monetary problems that resulted
Education isn't just skills: also work ethic and respect for rules/order
The shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves thing happens to countries too
They get rich and complacent, then overtaken
With inequality leads to internal disorder, which doesn't always lead to disaster — populism elected Roosevelt who did a peaceful redistribution, unlike Japan and Germany at the same time
The five big forces