everything is just productivity growth + short term debt cycles + long term debt cycles

the US economy is ~$50T in credit and ~$3T of actual money

the fundamental buying power of a person is their productivity. they can borrow to increase spending today, but then will have to pay it back later and have lower spending then. this is why the debt cycle is anchored to productivity growth

everyone is correlated because one person borrowing and spending more increases someone else’s income, which lets that person borrow more and/or increase spending also

the long term cycle is sort of the same thing but on the government + entire economy scale

short term cycle is 5-8 years

long term cycle is 50-100 years